Presenter
Robin Hanson, George Mason University
Robin Dale Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is known as an expert on idea futures and markets, and he was involved in the creation of the Foresight Exchange and DARPA’s FutureMAP project. He invented market scoring rules like LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) used by prediction markets such as Consensus Point (where Hanson is Chief Scientist), and has conducted research on signaling.
Philipp Koellinger, DeSci
I am professor in social science genetics at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam at the Department of Economics. My research investigates how genes influence economic behavior, and how insights into the genetic architecture of behavioral outcomes can inform social and medical research. Some of my work also explores how the brain mediates relationships between genes and human behavior. I am one of the principal investigators and co-founders of the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium ...
Kydo, Stanford University
My name is kydo. I am an incentive researcher. I love helping innovative and impactful projects on incentives and governance. Currently, I am being advised by Dan Boneh at Stanford School of Medicine, researching on decentralized scientific funding with crypto.
Alex Aleksyenko, Independent
Solving problems with bits, maths, and friends.
Nick Matthew, Figment Capital
Investor at Figment Capital. Interested in exponential tech. Mostly crypto for now.
Ryan Grant, Independent
Eduardo da Veiga Beltrame, ImYoo
I'm a scientist, I work with single cell RNA sequencing. I recently defended my PhD at Caltech (thesis PDF, defense). Here's a CV if you care. And GitHub. And LinkedIn. And publications. As my real job I work with some of my best friends from Caltech at ImYoo doing lots of single cell RNA sequencing and bioinformatics. As my surreal job I am on a resolute mission to reinvent education in Brazil. I do that by strongly supporting the Vilson Groh Institute in Floripa...
Summary:
What are you trying to do?
We want to create reliable ex-post measures of prestige. A long-term prediction market could be set up today to measure a consensus of experts (to be chosen one hundred years in the future) about what current research most impacted valued outcomes.
How is it done today? What are the limitations of the current system?
Current prestige is measured by journal publication, job title, citations, and grants. Prestige is constructed in and informal/social way. Having prestige doesn’t equate to having scientific insight.
What is new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful?
A long-term prediction market would separate the living human career concerns from the ultimate value of the science. It is more worth trying than known to work.
If successful, what difference will it make?
Academia/science would make more/better useful intellectual progress. Broader public may begin talking about this market, thus showing interest in what science research is effective.
Cost and Timeline?
Expert analysis may need 6 profs for 6 years: $5m; then use $100m to pick 10 people on the basis of these market.
What are the mid-term and final exams to check for completeness?
Mid-term exams:
Is there prediction market activity?
Can we find a way to rate past progress?
Final exams:
Is the prediction market still in operation?
Is academic world influenced by prices?
