Presenter
Robin Hanson, Oxford
Robin Dale Hanson is an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is known for his work on idea futures and markets, and he was involved in the creation of the Foresight Institute's Foresight Exchange and DARPA's FutureMAP project. He invented market scoring rules like LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) used by prediction markets such as Consensus Point (where Hanson is Chief Scientist), and has conducted research on signalling.
Summary:
In this talk summary, Robin Hanson discusses his book on brain emulations and its economic implications. The focus of the book is on the social science of brain emulations rather than a fictional story. Hanson applies standard academic consensus to the hypothesis of affordable brain emulations and predicts social worlds using the supply and demand framework. He suggests that the age of brain emulations could begin in the next century, with a transition lasting less than a decade. Characteristics of this age include an economy focused on subsistence needs, emulations operating at a much faster speed than humans, and the majority of emulations being copies of the most productive humans. Hanson evaluates this age as a world without pain, hunger, or disease, with beautiful bodies and a focus on virtual reality. However, emulations work long hours for subsistence wages, supporting better art, stories, and drugs. Hanson concludes that specific technical assumptions can be used to construct a detailed future scenario but acknowledges the resistance people have to change, making futurism challenging. He highlights the need for preparation in certain areas, such as job loss due to the introduction of robots.
