Time estimates for nano developments 2008-2021

As part of the EC-funded Nano2Life program, Aharon Hauptman and Yair Sharanhaupt of the Interdisciplinary Center for Technology Analysis and Forecasting (ICTAF) at Tel-Aviv University have written a 39-page report titled “Envisioned Developments in Nanobiotechnology” based on a survey of 139 experts from 30 countries. The 50% median date estimate from “experts and knowledgeable” for sample statements among the 20 tested are as follows:

2008: Nano-agents for analysis inside cells
2013: Nanotools for manipulation inside cells
2015: Self-repairing in artificial systems
2018: In vitro construction of human organs
2021: Nanomachines inside the body

Also surveyed for each development were expected impact, commercialization prospects and limits, and actions needed to enhance likelihood of realization. The full paper should be posted on the ICTAF site soon, but meanwhile here are some slides (pdf). Or if you need it urgently, email me. —Christine

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