Idea futures in Science: a strongly positive review

from the it-works! dept.
In a Feb 9, 2001 item in Science entitled "The Real Power of Artificial Markets" (subscription req'd), it is reported that: "Assessing the probabilities of future events is a problem often faced by science policymakers…At the Foresight Exchange (FX) Web site (, traders can actually bet on the outcomes of unresolved scientific questions…But can we place legitimate credence on the accuracy of FX prices, which are determined solely through competition in a play-money market game? To an extent, yes. We find that FX prices strongly correlate with observed outcome frequencies." Bravo to all at FX and to Robin Hanson, Idea Futures originator. Play for *real* money online at the Foresight Senior Associates idea futures market — just think how accurate it will be. We hope to trade in person at the upcoming Gathering.

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