A “Call for Participation” for the first post-US election Prediction Markets Summit and Collective Intelligence Conference of 2009 has been announced. “Prediction Markets Summit: Leading Collective Wisdom“, Friday, January 23 2009, 8:00am – 5:00pm, Fort Mason Center, San Francisco, California:
What are Prediction Markets?
Also known as information markets (PM), decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.
People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.…
What are Collective Intelligence Networks?
Collective Intelligence Networks (CIN) are an entirely new way to share, trade and aggregate information. They embrace complex social networks, collaboration and market dynamics to achieve fundamental increases in human capacity for learning, reasoning, understanding, aptitude and adaptation. CINs furnish a new capability infrastructure comprised of human relationships, diverse, far reaching information and markets, creating effective, fast-moving, and social information interchanges. This capability propels optimization and mastery of complex information and knowledge ecologies…
—Jim
