CRN has been working on eight scenarios for advanced nanotechtechnology, and they are now available. You can get a quick feel for them by their titles:
Scenario 1: Secret Military Development
Scenario 2: Positive Expectations
Scenario 3: Negative Drivers
Scenario 4: Presidential Commission
Scenario 5: … And Not a Drop to Drink
Scenario 6: A Goal Postponed
Scenario 7: Newshound Notebook
Scenario 8: Breaking the Fever
I have only started to read them — it takes a while — but I can predict that one common reaction may be that the dates are too soon. If that is your reaction, just insert dates that you find plausible, and continue reading. You can get value from the ideas separately from the dates. The point of scenarios is to stimulate thinking, not to make exact predictions.
And yes, technology scenarios tend to read like science fiction. Remember: when you’re looking far ahead in technology, if what you come up with seems like science fiction, it might be wrong…but if it doesn’t, it’s definitely wrong. The goal is to explore possibilities. —Christine
