Human brain equivalence on a chip by 2005?

from the smart-filing-cabinet dept.
Senior Associate RobertBradbury writes "EE Times has a very interesting article about how the German startup Pact GmbH is producing a new microprocessor packing 128 32-bit arithmetic logic units. Initial models pack ~13 GigaOps, but they plan to go to 400 GigaOps (4*1014 ops) by 2002. This is putting you in the range of human brain equivalence as I discuss here. As they project a petaop (1015 ops) on a chip by 2010, even if the conservative estimates of brain ops (1017 ops) are correct, you will be able to get human brain equivalence in a filing cabinet sized machine this decade!" (CP: Apologies to Robert for the delay in posting; I was on vacation.)

Single-electron transistor at IEDM

from the they-know-how-to-make-the-little-things-count dept.
GinaMiller pointed out an EE Times article on the upcoming International Electron Devices Meeting, Dec. 11-13 in San Francisco. "A team from Japan's NTT research laboratories has gone beyond the realm of single-transistor devices to build the first elemental circuit using single-electron transistors. The team fabricated the circuit using a silicon-on-insulator (SOI) process and a vertical pattern-dependent oxidation technique. When operating at 25 K, the circuit performed basic arithmetic calculations."

Map of Transformational Technologies

from the you-can-get-there-from-here dept.
PatGratton writes "I've put together a map of transformational technologies and some of their consequences. If I'm missing an important technology or consequence, please let me know." This continues the discussion of the white papers project mentioned earlier.

(Click Read More… for notes on the diagram and the technologies mapped.)

Copying Virus Armor For Nanomachines?

from the what-the-well-dressed-virus-is-wearing-this-season dept.
Sentharus pointed out an article at ScienceDaily entitled "Discovery Of Armored Viruses May Inspire New Designs For Nanotechnology," on research reported in the September 22 Science (registration required): "Now scientists have discovered that one type of virus actually comes equipped with an armored coat made of interlocking rings of protein…. remarkably similar to chain mail suits worn by medieval knights…. The armored virus was detected by an international team of scientists from Stanford, the Scripps Research Institute, the University of Pittsburgh and the University of Uppsala in Sweden."

Time to start writing

from the gigahands-make-nanowork dept.
ChrisPhoenix writes "(This was written as a letter to Foresight leadership; Chris Peterson asked us to get Nanodot feedback.)

In a spontaneous group that formed Sunday night after the recent Foresight Senior Associates Gathering, four of us discovered that we all felt similarly: that the time has come to build on the suggestions and issues produced by previous Foresight work and gatherings. Having attended several Gatherings and heard several issues from multiple perspectives, we are ready to start filling in the details. Although large and random groups are great for brainstorming, they are perhaps not the best structure for producing detailed, focused, mature work on specific issues. Small working groups or think tanks would be useful at this point, to begin processing the excellent suggestions that have flowed from the Gatherings." (Click Read More… for the rest.)

The Next Really Big Enormous Thing

from the a-singularity-is-coming dept.
Robin Hanson gave an informal talk titled "The Next Really Big Enormous Thing", which argues that there are reasons, based on historical models to expect that the pace of change may increase soon. He seems to be trying to convince economists and social scientists to take our concept of Singularity seriously, and to start doing active research into what the effects might be.

Ultimate computer noodling

from the we'll-settle-for-nanocomputers dept.
brian writes "Nice article in New Scientist that serves to establish both a physical upper limit to computing and a timeline. Kinda 'de rigueur' for Foresight but I find this kind of article useful for explaining singularity-like concepts to people. I.e. getting people to realize that one day (rsn) a 1 Ghz Pentium will seem as useless as my old 1 Mhz Apple ][+ seems today:

So here is where Moore's law must end, with a billion-degree laptop or an exploding submicroscopic black hole. "The truth is we have no notion of how to attain these ultimate limits," admits Lloyd. But don't despair–put your faith in human ingenuity. If the rate of progress doesn't slow, we'll reach these ultimate physical limits in just two hundred years' time.

Originally from Slashdot; see ensuing discussion if you like."

Schneier: computer security is impossible

from the capabilities-or-culpability? dept.
Bruce Schneier, author of the standard reference Applied Cryptography, has a new book out called Secrets and Lies. In an interview in Salon he talks about the book's main thesis: that secure computing is impossible: "Given the inevitability of attacks, 'prevention' can no longer be the security buzzword. Just as even the finest hockey goalies must regularly suffer the humiliation of allowing a goal, companies must learn to live with penetrations. Prepare for the worst, Schneier urges." Has the man never heard of capability security?

Ohio State wants to be next nanotech hotbed

from the not-what-I-was-thinking,-but-OK dept.

According to a press release for an upcoming conference on the medical applications of micro- and nanotechnologies, "the university, the city of Columbus, and the state of Ohio have invested heavily in the development of micro- and nanotechnology," says Mauro Ferrari, director of the Biomedical Engineering Center, and associate director of the Heart and Lung Institute at Ohio State.

In September, Ohio State University will host a comprehensive international conference devoted the medical uses of micro- and nanotechnology. About 70 research papers have been scheduled to be presented at "BioMEMS and Biomedical Nanotechnology World 2000." The conference will run September 23 through 26 at the Hyatt Regency Columbus.

The release concludes: "When people hear 'microelectronics,' they think of Silicon Valley," Ferrari Said. "Ten years from now, when people hear 'nanotechnology,' we want them to think of Ohio."

CIA advocates public education on nanotech

from the so-where's-their-donation? dept.
This "news" predates nanodot, but it's worth noting this item from IDG that gives both NASA's views on nanotech (which we knew), but also the CIA's (which we didn't): The rapid pace of technological change is also forcing the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to adjust. In February 1999, the CIA formed IN-Q-Tel Inc., a nonprofit corporation set up to invest in technology companies. The CIA believes it is not currently able to keep up with developments in information technology infrastructures and is being challenged in its mission of presenting top-flight information to the federal government, Gilman Louie, president of IN-Q-Tel, said…Louie also advocated public education as an element in promoting support for nanotechnology. "The genie is already out of the bottle." he said.

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